With one of the largest repricings in fixed income in decades underway, Brij joins me for a wide-ranging conversation on monetary policy, inflation, the wealth effect and where he sees opportunity across global bond markets. We begin with a provocative question: what if interest rates have become more effective at influencing financial markets than the real economy? Here, Brij argues that the traditional relationship between rates and business investment has weakened considerably. Ultra-low and negative real rates did not necessarily generate the productive investment policymakers hoped for. Instead, they helped encourage greater financialization, from household leverage and corporate stock buybacks to private equity activity and, more recently, government borrowing. That leads us to inflation and Brij's argument that today's remaining price pressures are increasingly connected to wealth rather than wages. With an enormous amount of household wealth tied to equities, particularly among older generations, we explore how asset-price appreciation can support spending in areas like housing, healthcare, restaurants and travel even as labor-market demand cools. We then turn to the Fed and the dramatic repricing underway across developed-market yield curves. Brij explains why the front end remains closely tied to expectations for monetary policy, while longer-dated yields incorporate a much broader debate around nominal growth, term premium and the economic consequences of the AI investment boom. AI itself becomes an important part of the discussion. We examine whether extraordinary capital spending and borrowing by hyperscalers are contributing to higher bond yields, changing the traditional stock-bond relationship and potentially crowding out other borrowers. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Brij Khurana.
With one of the largest repricings in fixed income in decades underway, Brij joins me for a wide-ranging conversation on monetary policy, inflation, the wealth effect and where he sees opportunity across global bond markets.
We begin with a provocative question: what if interest rates have become more effective at influencing financial markets than the real economy? Here, Brij argues that the traditional relationship between rates and business investment has weakened considerably. Ultra-low and negative real rates did not necessarily generate the productive investment policymakers hoped for. Instead, they helped encourage greater financialization, from household leverage and corporate stock buybacks to private equity activity and, more recently, government borrowing.
That leads us to inflation and Brij's argument that today's remaining price pressures are increasingly connected to wealth rather than wages. With an enormous amount of household wealth tied to equities, particularly among older generations, we explore how asset-price appreciation can support spending in areas like housing, healthcare, restaurants and travel even as labor-market demand cools.
We then turn to the Fed and the dramatic repricing underway across developed-market yield curves. Brij explains why the front end remains closely tied to expectations for monetary policy, while longer-dated yields incorporate a much broader debate around nominal growth, term premium and the economic consequences of the AI investment boom.
AI itself becomes an important part of the discussion. We examine whether extraordinary capital spending and borrowing by hyperscalers are contributing to higher bond yields, changing the traditional stock-bond relationship and potentially crowding out other borrowers.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Brij Khurana.